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06/13/2010 - Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joey Logano outran Carl Edwards in the closing laps and beat the weather to win Saturday's Meijer 300 Nationwide Series race at Kentucky Speedway.
Logano passed Brendan Gaughan and took the lead for good with less than 25 laps remaining. Edwards then chased down Logano within the last 10 laps, but he held off Edwards by 0.67 seconds for his first victory of the season and the seventh of his Nationwide career.
His last win came in October 2009 at Fontana, CA.
Logano became the first driver in series history to win three consecutive races at the same track after starting on the pole for each one of those events. When Logano won his first Nationwide race at Kentucky in 2008, he became the youngest winner at age 18 years and 21 days.
"Oh man, I don't know what feels better, getting three-for-three here or finally getting a win this year," said Logano, who led a race-high 106 laps. "We've had quite a few stolen, and with Carl running right up there at the end, I was saying, 'I don't want to lose another one this way'."
The 300-mile race featured a track record-tying 10 cautions for 51 laps. Logano lost the lead after several late-race restarts, but managed to reclaim the top position shortly after.
"On my restarts, for at least on the first lap, I wasn't up to speed that good, and after that, I was able to make something of this car," he added.
Logano pulled into victory lane just before a severe thunderstorm moved over the 1.5-mile track. Teams were preparing pit strategies in the late-stages of the race in anticipation of the rain shortening the scheduled 200-lap distance.
Edwards finished in the runner-up spot for the second week in a row, while points leader Brad Keselowski overcame a 25th starting position to finish third.
"I'm sure Joey has had a long week, and he deserves that win," Edwards said. "I had him on that high line. I was up there, and I thought, 'Man, I hope they don't tell him what I am doing,' but I knew they were, and he got back up there."
Keselowski now holds a comfortable 272-point advantage over Edwards.
"It was one of those days, but we came away and brought home a solid finish for [this team]," Keselowski said.
Logano, Edwards and Keselowski are pulling the Kentucky-Michigan combo this weekend. The Sprint Cup Series will race at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick missed out on the Nationwide race for the second week in a row to concentrate on their Sprint Cup efforts.
Gaughan, who was looking for his first Nationwide win, wound up finishing fourth, and Reed Sorenson took the fifth spot.
Steve Wallace, Scott Wimmer, Justin Allgaier, Scott Riggs and rookie Colin Braun completed the top-10.
<< Salazar and LeBlanc lead Padres past Mariners
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oscar Salazar hit a three-run home run to
help the San Diego Padres dominate the Seattle Mariners, 7-1, in the second of
a three-game interleague set.
Adrian Gonzalez hit a two-run home run and scored
<< Guillen's 10th-inning homer lifts Tigers over Pirates
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Guillen's homer to start the bottom of
the 10th inning gave the Detroit Tigers a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates
in the second of a three-game interleague set.
With Brendan Donnelly (2-1) on the
<< Hamilton homers, Rangers hang on to beat Brewers
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Smoak hit a two-run double and Josh
Hamilton blasted a solo home run, as the Texas Rangers held on to beat the
Milwaukee Brewers, 4-3, in the middle portion of a three-game interleague
series
<< Hammel impressive on the mound as Rockies shut out Jays
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Hammel and Manuel Corpas combined on a
four-hitter in Colorado's 1-0 victory over Toronto in the middle meeting of a
three-game interleague set at Coors Field.
Hammel (4-3) yielded only three hits,
Florida downs Miami, advances to CWS >>
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Austin Maddox's RBI double in the top of
the 10th inning lifted Florida over Miami-Florida, 4-3, sending the Gators to
the College World Series.
Florida, which won 7-2 in the opener of this best-of-t
UCLA coach Howland has surgery >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - UCLA head men's basketball coach Ben
Howland underwent successful surgery to repair a ruptured right Achilles
tendon.
The procedure was performed on Friday at the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medi
Rivera homers as Angels edge Dodgers >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Rivera clubbed a two-run homer to help
the Angels defeat the Dodgers, 4-2, in the middle contest of a three-game
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Howie Kendrick and Torii Hunter each had an
Robben ruled out of Dutch opener >>
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arjen Robben has been ruled out
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Dutch manager Bert van Marwijk said that it was too risky to pl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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