Can Cardinals Separate Chargers from No. 1 Seed?

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been 26 years since the San Diego Chargers entered the AFC playoffs as the conference's top seed. The wait is about to end, however, provided the high-powered club can defeat the Arizona Cardinals in this Sunday's regular-season finale at Qualcomm Stadium.

San Diego has already earned a first-round bye for the first time since its Super Bowl season of 1994, and will secure the AFC's top spot with either a victory over the Cardinals or a Baltimore loss to Buffalo on Sunday.

The Chargers were last a No. 1 seed in 1980, when an explosive offense led by Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Fouts carried the Bolts all the way to the conference championship game. This year's San Diego team is also driven by an explosive offense that features a future Hall of Famer in running back LaDainian Tomlinson, the odds-on choice to be named the league's Most Valuable Player at season's end.

Tomlinson leads all NFL backs with a career-best 1,749 rushing yards and has scored a league-record 31 touchdowns, although the unassuming superstar failed to find the end zone for the first time since Week 5 in last Sunday's game with Seattle. The Chargers still managed to rally for a 20-17 victory, as quarterback Philip Rivers rebounded from a rough start to throw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson with 29 seconds left.

The win was San Diego's ninth in a row, and established a franchise record for victories in a season.

Sunday's game will mark the end of another disappointing campaign for Arizona and possibly the tenure of the tumultuous three-year reign of Dennis Green as head coach. The players have made a belated effort to save Green's job, as the Cardinals have won four of six after a disastrous 1-8 start.

Arizona has also came away with victories in each of its last two road games, including last Sunday's 26-20 triumph at San Francisco. The win came with a price, however, as promising rookie quarterback Matt Leinart sprained his throwing shoulder shortly before halftime and will not be available for the finale.

The Cardinals will now turn to old warhorse Kurt Warner, who gave way to Leinart five games into the season. The two-time MVP was solid after taking over in the second half last week, completing 9-of-13 passes for 105 yards without an interception.

SERIES HISTORY

The Chargers have a 7-3 lead in their all-time series with the Cardinals, including a 23-15 win in the most recent meeting, at Sun Devil Stadium in 2002. Arizona won the previous meeting, a 20-17 triumph at Qualcomm Stadium in 2001. Prior to that matchup, San Diego was 4-0 in home games in the series. The Cardinals' last road loss to the Chargers occurred in 1995.

Chargers head coach Marty Schottenheimer is 6-1 in his career against Arizona, and has won six straight against the Cardinals since a loss for his Browns in 1985. Green was 1-1 against San Diego during his tenure with Minnesota (1992-2001), and is 1-2 head-to-head against Green.

CARDINALS OFFENSE VS. CHARGERS DEFENSE

Warner (1,021 passing yards, 5 TD, 5 INT) remains a deadly presence who can pick apart opposing secondaries as long as he is provided adequate time to throw. That's never a given, however, considering Arizona's mediocre play across the offensive line and the 35-year-old's utter lack of mobility in the pocket. Warner was sacked 12 times during his four early-season starts and fumbled 10 times over that stretch, a contributing factor towards his benching. The Cardinals do boast the NFC's top pair of wideouts in the physical Anquan Boldin (79 receptions, 1,091 yards, 4 TD) and the graceful Larry Fitzgerald (65 receptions, 913 yards, 5 TD), plus a dangerous third option in Bryant Johnson (37 receptions, 664 yards, 4 TD). For the year, Arizona ranks 10th in the NFL with an average of 221.1 passing yards per game.

The strength of San Diego's quality defense is its ability to rush the passer. The Chargers have racked up a league-best 60 sacks on the season, and took down Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck three times a week ago. Three of those came from relentless outside linebacker Shawne Merriman (53 tackles, 1 INT, 4 forced fumbles), who has amassed a whopping 15 1/2 sacks despite sitting out four games due to a steroid suspension. Underrated Shaun Phillips (63 tackles, 4 forced fumbles) has produced 11 1/2 sacks on the opposite side, while end Luis Castillo (37 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT) has been the team's top pressurer on the line. Castillo will likely miss a second straight game due to an ankle sprain, but Jacques Cesaire (35 tackles, 4.5 sacks) had two sacks in his place last Sunday. The physical play of cornerbacks Drayton Florence (59 tackles, 3 INT, 13 PBU) and Quentin Jammer (71 tackles, 4 INT, 12 PBU) has also aided the Chargers' No. 12 overall ranking in pass defense (191.1 ypg).

While the Cardinals have generally had success throwing the ball, their ground attack has been sluggish through most of this campaign despite the offseason acquisition of top-tier running back Edgerrin James (1,093 yards, 5 TD). The former Indianapolis Colts star did eclipse the 1,000-yard barrier for the fourth straight year in last week's win, but he's averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per carry behind a line that's often struggled to open up holes. James' production has noticeably swelled down the stretch, however, as he's had three 100-yard outings over the last four games. Arizona has won all three of those contests. The 28-year-old is also a viable part of the passing game, having totaled 217 yards on 38 receptions heading into Sunday's finale.

James' recent success could be tempered by a Chargers' stop unit that is allowing a solid 101 rushing yards per game, the eighth-best mark in the NFL. Nose tackle Jamal Williams (66 tackles, 2 sacks) is a premier run stuffer who's headed to a second straight Pro Bowl, while inside linebackers Donnie Edwards (130 tackles, 3 INT, 2.5 sacks) and Randall Godfrey (57 tackles, 4 sacks) are savvy veterans that are always around the ball. Godfrey has missed two of the last three games with an injured hamstring, meaning capable reserve Stephen Cooper (47 tackles, 2.5 sacks) could get another start if the 33-year- old is again unable to go.

CHARGERS OFFENSE VS. CARDINALS DEFENSE

San Diego comes in as the NFL's highest-scoring team (31.0 ppg) and ranks third in rushing yards (160.6 ypg) and fourth in total yards (363.5 ypg). The undisputed catalyst of the offense is Tomlinson, who has gone over the 100- yard mark every time during the team's current nine-game win streak and is averaging a stellar 5.3 yards per carry. The amazing 27-year-old is also one of the league's most accomplished receiving backs, having caught 54 passes for an additional 494 yards. There's been little if no letdown in the times when Tomlinson has needed a breather, as bruising backup Michael Turner (444 rushing yards, 2 TD) has been sensational in spot duty. A high-quality offensive line led by Pro Bowl center Nick Hardwick has also played a vital role in the running game's significant success.

The Cardinals have done an adequate job defending the run, as evidenced by the 51 yards the defense limited San Francisco's Frank Gore to last week and the way it held Denver's potent ground game in check back in Week 15. The difficult task of stopping Tomlinson would be made easier if middle linebacker Gerald Hayes (93 tackles, 1 sack), Arizona's leading tackler, is able to start after sitting out the 49er game with injured ribs. Strongside starter Karlos Dansby (72 tackles, six sacks) and tackle Darnell Dockett (49 tackles, 2 sacks) are quick and athletic defenders who have put together solid seasons, while Pro Bowl strong safety Adrian Wilson (79 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 INT) is a premier playmaker who provides ample support. The Cards stand 16th overall with an average of 115.2 rushing yards allowed per game.

If the Chargers have any concerns heading into the postseason, one could be the regressed play of Rivers (3,157 yards, 20 TD, 8 INT) over the last two weeks. The intelligent signal-caller struggled through an 8-for-23, 97-yard, two-interception performance against Kansas City on December 17, then misfired on 22 of his first 28 throws last Sunday before catching fire late. Still, the 25-year-old has delivered an outstanding first season as the starter. Rivers' top target is super tight end Antonio Gates (67 receptions, 868 yards, 8 TD), a virtual unstoppable force in the red zone. The wide receiving corps is generally an average group, although Jackson (24 receptions, 425 yards, 5 TD) has emerged into a genuine weapon as of late. The talented second-year wideout, who stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 240 pounds, had career-bests of five catches, 97 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle, and presents a huge matchup problem for enemy cornerbacks.

Look for Rivers to improve his numbers against an Arizona defense that has been rather submissive against the pass. The Cardinals are yielding 231.7 yards per game through the air, the third-highest total in the league, but have garnered a respectable 15 interceptions. Former first-round pick Antrel Rolle (81 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PBU) has been pretty solid on one corner, but fellow second-year man Eric Green (37 tackles, 12 PBU) has been shaky on the other side and lost his starting job to veteran David Macklin (34 tackles, 1 INT) at midseason. Arizona's pass rush has been weakened by the season-ending triceps injury suffered by Bertrand Berry last month, leaving fellow end Chike Okeafor (33 sacks, 7.5 sacks) and Dansby as the club's only threats to the quarterback.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Only time will tell whether the Chargers will lose another game this season, but it's not going to be this week. Tomlinson will add to his incomparable scoring total against an Arizona defense that gives up its share of yardage, while San Diego's fearsome group of pass rushers will feast on the immobile Warner. If this is indeed Green's final game with the Cardinals, it won't be a pleasant sendoff.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chargers 38, Cardinals 17

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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